Goldman Sachs predicts a crisis four times worse than the 2008 crisis in the U.S -April 2020
Goldman Sachs Says a Sizable Correction Isn’t Coming. -December 2020
“Darlin’ you got to let me know, Should I stay or should I go?” -The Clash
This has been an unusual year to say the least! In March, the S&P 500 lost -33%. That kind of crash should have taken 2 years to recover from, but as of December 21st, the S&P 500 recovered and is up 14.37%. It has been an uneven rise, however, focused on Tech and Consumer Discretionary sectors with Real Estate, Energy, and dividend companies lagging. Then we have the elections.
President Trump’s options to win are quite limited now. It seems we now have a Biden presidency. Whether you think that is a good or bad thing, the markets do not care and history has shown that. Why are the markets doing so well? There are 3 reasons:
First, the Federal Reserve Bank has bought significant amounts of bonds which helped push equities to all-time highs. Equities surged despite the virus, high unemployment, and damage to small businesses due to lock downs.
Second, the stimulus with business recovery and loan programs injected massive funds into the economy and softened the blow of the lock downs.
Finally, there are taxes. This is a big issue at stake for the future health and growth of the economy. Whether or not taxes should increase is not the question. The current resiliency of our economy is due to taxes being low and pro-business. The markets will respond negatively to any increase in taxes.
So that makes the January 5th, 2021 senate elections in Georgia very important. If the Senate Republicans lose their majority, we will likely see a big drop in the markets on fear of increasing tax legislation. But, due to the market highs, if the January earning season forecasts come in light or disturbing, then a correction could be in the cards (fear of a double dip recession).
Notice the quotes from the premier Wall Street Bank, Goldman Sachs at the start of this article. They predicted a terrible crisis 4 times worse than 2008 and then said no problems are coming in December of the same year!
The stock analysts at the Clash are asking, “Should I stay or should I go?” The answer? We don’t know either. We do know that the markets are at all-time highs, with a likely new President, and uncertainty in an economic recovery.
We are investing cautiously and have recommended increasing cash (50% or more), so that our clients have dry powder to invest if a sell-off does happen. We will re-evaluate our portfolio late January 2021.
What is an RSSA and RICP?
(Spoiler Alert! Bragging to follow.)
At Toro Bravo Investment Advisors, we have focused on retirement planning. All our clients are offered an annual Retirement Plan and a Social Security Maximization Report.5 Our mandate is to “know where you are going, before you invest your money.” This helps you to see how our advice makes sense for your individual situation.
A clear retirement plan should be a prerequisite to investing.
Part of our commitment is to always improve our knowledge and education in the areas our clients need advice. The RSSA (Registered Social Security Analyst) is a professional designation that focuses on Social Security.
Planning for retirement involves understanding how Social Security works and the very complicated rules involved. Most Financial Advisors barely understand the basics of Social Security planning and inadvertently give poor or incorrect advice.
The average social security benefit has a lifetime value of $360,000.00.6 A 5% loss of benefits from incorrect planning, filing, or applying to early is a $18,000.00 loss of income! Boston College estimates that people lose an average of $14,000.00 from improper filing.
The RSSA applicants are put through a rigorous 5 module course. The 5th module focuses on working case studies through Social Security optimization software. This teaches the Analyst how to apply the heavily bureaucratic social security rules to actual clients. Once completed, the applicant sits for an 80-question proctored exam with a case study report written report.
I completed my coursework and testing on December 8, 2020 and earned the RSSA designation. With my Financial Planning certificate earned through Boston University and my over 23 year of insurance and securities experience, I am prepared to help my clients to plan and invest for the future.5 (Go to www.RSSA.com to learn more about RSSA.)
Additionally, in July of 2020 Mubashir Subhani completed the RICP program. (Retirement Income Certified Professional) American College describes the purpose this way.
“The purpose of retirement financial planner is to help individuals who are at or near retirement build a plan to ensure they meet their retirement income and other financial goals throughout their nonworking years and manage the many risks they may face.”
Our goal is to help you with the important decisions to properly plan and invest for retirement. If you know someone who could use our help, please let’s get introduced. Call us to set a time to visit.
Sources Citations Bibliography:
⦁ money.cnn.com
⦁ https://www.cnbc.com/2020/12/16/fed-decision-december-2020-fed-commits-to-keep-buying-bonds-until-the-economy-gets-back-to-full-employment.html
⦁ The Clash were an English rock band formed in London in 1976 as a key player in the original wave of British punk rock. – Wikipedia
⦁ Accounts are managed individually, call to inquire about the strategy or cash position we are using in your account. Some accounts require your approval before trades are entered. (e.g. Variable Annuities) Again, call us to discuss your portfolio.
⦁ If you have not had a retirement plan completed, please contact us to begin the process.
⦁ $1,500.00 monthly benefit average starting at 65 for
Supplemental Disclaimers:
This article is informational only and is not investment advice. This is not an offer to buy, hold, or sell investments like securities or insurance products.
Securities and Investment Advisory Services are offered though Toro Bravo Investment Advisors, LLC. Life Insurance and Annuities sold as an insurance broker are not a fiduciary relationship and are not offered by Toro Bravo Investment Advisors, LLC.
Securities or Insurance are not FDIC/SIPC insured and investments contain risk plus could be subject to loss.
Losses could be short term or permanent. Numbers and figures illustrated are hypothetical in nature and past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results/performance.
We are not affiliated with the Social Security Administration (SSA), Internal Revenue Service (IRS), or any Governmental Agency.
Do not rely solely on the Legal, Tax, or Financial information presented for it may not be suitable for your individual situation.
Consult your legal, tax, and/or financial professional before acting on any strategy or recommendation (i.e. major changes or before initiating the purchase, hold, or sale of any investment or investment strategy). Every individual’s strategy can differ depending on current circumstances and goals.