The word ‘politics’ is derived from the word ‘poly’, meaning ‘many’, and the word ‘ticks’, meaning ‘blood sucking parasites.’ – Larry Hardiman
There is much concern over the upcoming presidential election. I don’t know if I have ever seen this much polarization over an outcome of an election. Some are quite concerned about how their investments will fair when the contest is decided.
In a previous newsletter, I stated to expect a market decline of -30% or more if Biden is elected. This was not an endorsement of Trump but rather a prediction based on past changes in the White House. There is frequently a reset in the markets as investors make decisions based on their outlook of a new administration. But remember, every decline in the market has recovered, every one!
Many years ago, in 2008 one investor I spoke to said that he was convinced that America was totally and completely ‘screwed’ when Obama was elected. He wanted out of equities. But he was already down a lot (S&P 500 lost -36.97% in 2008) and needed to make his money back. He hung in there and he saw his account return to the previous value and more.
The point I would like to make is, be careful of being partisan. Don’t let politics determine your investments. There are rainy days in the market along with the sunny days. Check your time horizon. Is it the same as before? If the election outcome really worries you, then take some money out of equity investments and move it to cash. Look at your liquid savings. Do you have enough to be able to not touch your investments for a year or more? We expect some volatility and have beefed up our cash positions. Goldman Sachs recently said that election fears are overblown.
If we are talking about the economy however, it is doing well. Second quarter GDP2 drop was revised higher from -31.7% to -31.4%. The 2020 estimate drop in GDP is now -4.8%. Jobless Claims fell from 873,000 in the prior week to 837,000, and continuing claims dropped from 12.747 million to 11.767 million. Consumer confidence in September increased from 86.3 in August to 101.8. The unemployment rate fell from 8.4% to 7.9%. (Manufacturing added 66,000 jobs, and bars/restaurants added 200,000.) This is good news and a continuing trend for an improving economy.
“Now is not the time to panic!” -Scooter from the Muppet Show.
We are here to help. Call us to discuss your portfolio and strategy.
Toro Bravo Client Appreciation Event
On Tuesday, October 27th, 2020 at 5:30 we will hold a client appreciation event at the Amarillo Club at 600 S. Tyler St. Tea, soda, wine, and mixed drinks will be available along with some appetizers. Come join us for refreshments and fantastic views from the 30th floor. We encourage you to bring a friend. Please call Haleigh/Alexis to RSVP at (806) 359-6677 or email her at RIA-OM@torobravoadvisors.com. We will be taking temperatures, please if you show any symptoms relating to Covid, stay home.
Social Security Optimization
If you go to ssa.gov/myaccount/ you can download your Social Security statement and find out how much you are going to receive when you retire. Seems pretty helpful, right? Not so much. The calculation can be off significantly. There is so much that can affect your Social Security benefits that is not included in the report.
Call us to complete a Social Security Optimization Report. We can help you accurately quote what your benefits will be at retirement using software that specifically calculates your benefits. We have to predict future wages and wage increase/decrease. As such, it is recommended that you calculate benefits annually to see if you are staying on track.
Additionally, checking your statement annually allows you to make sure there are not any mistakes. Mistakes must be corrected with in 3 years, according to Social Security rules.
Sources Citations Bibliography
⦁ Accounts are managed individually, call to inquire about the strategy we are using for your account.
⦁ GDP – Gross domestic product is the total monetary or market value of all the finished goods and services produced within a country’s borders in a specific time period… it functions as a comprehensive scorecard of a given country’s economic health. -Investopedia
⦁ Source: Efficient Market Advisors Herb Morganhttp://www.efficient-portfolios.
Supplemental Disclaimers:
This article is informational only and is not investment advice. This is not an offer to buy, hold, or sell investments like securities or insurance products.
Securities and Investment Advisory Services are offered though Toro Bravo Investment Advisors, LLC. Life Insurance and Annuities sold as an insurance broker are not a fiduciary relationship and are not offered by Toro Bravo Investment Advisors, LLC.
Securities or Insurance are not FDIC/SIPC insured and investments contain risk plus could be subject to loss.
Losses could be short term or permanent. Numbers and figures illustrated are hypothetical in nature and past performance is not a guarantee or indication of future results/performance.
We are not affiliated with the Social Security Administration (SSA), Internal Revenue Service (IRS), or any Governmental Agency.
Do not rely solely on the Legal, Tax, or Financial information presented for it may not be suitable for your individual situation.
Consult your legal, tax, and/or financial professional before acting on any strategy or recommendation (i.e. major changes or before initiating the purchase, hold, or sale of any investment or investment strategy).
Every individual’s strategy can differ depending on current circumstances and goals.